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pajoohande 2016, 21(4): 199-209 Back to browse issues page
Desired childless survival interval analysis of pre-marriage youths: log-normal parametric model
Arezoo Bagheri, Mahsa Saadati *
, mahsa.saadati@gmail.com
Abstract:   (847 Views)

Background and Aim: Fertility preferences and first birth interval are two effective components on low fertility, which are emphasis by planners and politicians. The aim of this study is to evaluate factors affect on ideal first birth interval among pre-marriage youths.

Materials and Methods: A sample of 12500 pre-marriage youth women and men in all provinces who visited pre-marriage counseling centers in 2014, based on cross-sectional survey by multistage stratified sampling method and structured questionnaire was gathered. In this article, ideal first birth interval as a response variable was modeled on gender, place of residence, age, educational level, ideal number of children, job status, family income level and sex preference by parametric survival analysis.

Results: Since in this study proportional hazard assumption for Cox model was not met, parametric survival analysis was used. In all provinces, log-normal model between exponential, Weibul and log-logistic was selected and interpreted based on AIC. Age and job status, in all provinces, affected ideal first birth interval significantly (α=0.05). Gender, ideal number of children, family income level and sex preference also affected on this interval in category 1 to 3 of province.

Conclusion: In all provinces, the ideal first birth interval decreases by increasing age. This may be due to fear of infertility by delaying childbearing is the cause of this result. Also, university students have longer ideal first birth interval than the other job status levels. Therefore, it seems youth interesting for education, will delay childbearing more than past.

Keywords: Desired childless survival interval, Youths, Survival parametric model, Log-normal model
Full-Text [PDF 515 kb]   (331 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Original | Subject: Medicine
Received: 2017/03/28 | Accepted: 2017/03/28 | Published: 2017/03/28
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Bagheri A, Saadati M. Desired childless survival interval analysis of pre-marriage youths: log-normal parametric model. pajoohande. 2016; 21 (4) :199-209
URL: http://pajoohande.sbmu.ac.ir/article-1-2249-en.html
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